PROBLEM ECOLOGY


Problem ecology exists because we have observed organisations in their infancy position themselves as solving problems, rather than accumulating capital.

Numerous complex coordination problems lie before us. Some of humanity's hardest problems, like cancer, attract armies of solvers while others, like neutrino communication, are unclaimed. What turns a blue ocean red?

You are invited to contribute as we develop a taxonomy for the problems humanity is trying to solve.

OBJECTIVES


  1. Build a classification system for the problems organisations seek to solve, a taxonomy that reveals why some problems attract solvers and others go untouched.

  2. Develop the methodology by which that classification is constructed, tested, and revised.

  3. Map the network of problems currently being worked on, and those that remain unclaimed.

  4. Use that classification and network to predict which unclaimed problems are next to become contested, and why.

  5. Produce a body of research that is open to challenge, replication, and falsification.

  6. Convene the researchers, founders, and investors who want to develop this further.

HYPOTHESES


  1. All problems have a solution, under the right conditions. The work of Problem Ecology is to understand what those conditions are, why they exist for some problems and not others, and how they can be created.

  2. There are commonalities across problems. Problems that appear unrelated on the surface share underlying structural features that determine whether they attract solvers and whether those solvers make progress.

  3. There are commonalities across solvers. Organisations attacking different problems exhibit consistent patterns of behaviour, structure, and failure that are independent of the problem domain.

  4. The relationship between a problem and its solver population is not random. It is determined by features of the problem itself, features of the solver, and the fit between them.

  5. Solver density is not a reliable predictor of progress.

  6. Not all solvers are incentivised to solve their problem. Where the commercial survival of an organisation depends on the persistence of the problem it claims to solve, the solver population becomes structurally misaligned with resolution.

  7. The transition from unclaimed to contested is not random. It follows a pattern that can be identified and potentially accelerated.

OPEN QUESTIONS


  1. What is the right unit of analysis, the problem, the solver, or the relationship between them? The taxonomy assumes the problem is primary. This may be wrong.

  2. Should the classification system be borrowed, merged from existing frameworks, or built from first principles? Linnaean taxonomy, the periodic table, network theory, and medical diagnostic models each offer partial tools. Each reveals something the others miss. Whether the right approach is synthesis or an entirely new structure built specifically for problems is unresolved. This is the foundational methodological question of the field. We have a view but not yet an answer.

  3. Can a problem change its failure mode over time? Neutrino communication is currently unclaimed because of technology constraint. If the physics matures but market structures fail to adapt, does it become incentive misalignment? If so the taxonomy must be dynamic not static.

  4. What turns a blue ocean red? Why do some unclaimed problems suddenly attract armies of solvers while others sit untouched for decades? We do not have a mechanism for this transition. Finding one is the central research question of this field.

  5. Is solver density a cause or a symptom? Do problems attract many solvers because they are legible and value-capturable, or does high solver density itself change the nature of the problem? The causal direction is unresolved.

  6. What is the relationship between problem depth and solver type? We observe that deep civilisational problems tend to attract non-commercial solvers while shallow problems attract commercial ones. Is this a law or a coincidence?

  7. How do you verify a claim about an unclaimed problem? If we say neutrino communication has no serious solvers, how do we know? The methodology for auditing the Index is underdeveloped.

FUTURE PAPERS


What Turns a Blue Ocean Red? Toward a Problem Ecology
May 2026. Thomas Dolan.

How Do You Classify a Problem? A Proposed Methodology for Problem Ecology
October 2026. Thomas Dolan.

Solving Problems or Sustaining Them? How Founders Navigate the Tension Between Mission and Commercial Survival
February 2027. Thomas Dolan.

Solver Density and Problem Progress: Evidence from the Conjecture Index
May 2027. Awaiting co-authors.

The Unclaimed Problem: Why Democratic Systems Fail to Direct Resources Toward Civilisational Challenges
May 2028. Awaiting co-authors.

FINDINGS

Study began April 2026. No findings yet.

CONTRIBUTE

We want to speak with researchers, founders, and capital allocators who have thought seriously about why certain problems go unclaimed.
If that is you, we want to hear from you.